Abstract #456

# 456
Predicting the next life event including disease by applying deep learning on sequential and pictorial data.
A. Liseune1, D. Van den Poel1, B. Van Ranst2, M. Hostens*2,3, 1Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Ghent, Belgium, 2Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Ghent University, Merelbeke, Belgium, 3Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, University of Utrecht, Utrecht, the Netherlands.

The common currency in developing solutions to sustainable dairy production are often focusing on increased animal production efficiency through improved animal health. In particular, the use of data driven technologies for early disease detection has shown a lot of promise. In this study, we show how systematically recording fertility and disease events from herd management systems can be helpful in improving existing animal monitoring systems. Moreover, while previous research focused primarily on detecting single outcomes such as mastitis lameness and insemination outcomes, we propose a multiclass prediction model which forecasts a probability distribution over 12 possible life events. Traditional techniques such as Markov for discrimination models can use historical sequences of disease and fertility records to predict a cow’s future state. Additionally, we investigated whether more advanced recurrent neural network algorithms are better able to uncover the complex data patterns hidden in the event sequences. Finally, we examined if augmenting a cow’s history of events with pictures take can enhance the predictive performance even further by making use of convolutional neural network models. While most picture studies are conducted as experimental designs using complex video camera setups and expensive equipment such as thermal scanners, we worked with pictures taken by the farmers and personel their smartphones, which to our most recent knowledge, has not yet been applied in the context of animal monitoring systems. While the Markov for discrimination models their percentage correctly classified (PCC) and Top-3 PCC ranged from 67% to 68% and from 87% to 88% respectively, the neural network models achieved a PCC of 75% and a Top-3 PCC of 95%. Results show that an ensemble model incorporating sequential as well pictorial information performs best and that the model is able to accurately predict future states such as calving, mastitis, pregnancy and death with an accuracy of 97%. The framework presented in this research can be used to enhance current animal monitoring systems with better animal health and higher sustainability for the dairy industry as a result.

Key Words: artificial intelligence, disease classification, animal monitoring

Speaker Bio
Miel Hostens focused on optimization of productive and reproductive performances in small and large herds with an emphasis on nutrition during his PhD and post doc position at the Department of Reproduction, Obstetrics and Herd Health of Ghent University (Belgium). He was workpackage leader for 3 work packages with a focus on data management in the large EU FP7 project GplusE until 2018. He currently works as assistant professor at the ?Department of Farm Animal Health of Utrecht University (the Netherlands). where he is involved in the education of master and bachelor students in Veterinary Medicine, statistical training of PhD students in data science in the area of dairy cows and post academic and extension services in the area of herd health management in dairy cows.