Abstract #200

# 200
Estimating the dairy farm value of infectious or non-infectious lameness prevention strategies as influenced by pre-prevention hoof disease incidence rates and prevention effectiveness.
Karmella A. Dolecheck*1, Michael W. Overton2, Tyler B. Mark1, Jeffrey M. Bewley3, 1University of Kentucky, Lexington, KY, 2Elanco Animal Health, Greenfield, IN, 3CowFocused Housing, Bardstown, KY.

The objective of this study was to adapt a farm-level stochastic simulation model to estimate the value of implementing lameness prevention on a dairy farm by calculating the change in the herd-level total cost of lameness from pre- to post- lameness prevention implementation. Two potential lameness prevention strategies were tested: strategy 1 was prevention focused on reducing the infectious hoof diseases in the model (digital dermatitis) and strategy 2 was prevention focused on reducing the non-infectious hoof diseases in the model (sole ulcer and white line disease). For each strategy, pre-prevention incidence of either infectious (strategy 1) or non-infectious (strategy 2) hoof diseases was set at 3 different levels. The effectiveness of prevention was allowed to vary from a disease incidence risk ratio of 0.0 to 1.0 in each strategy and pre-prevention disease incidence level combination. Stochastic simulation was used to account for variation within the farm model; 300 iterations were run. When implementing prevention strategy 1, the mean ± SD change in the herd-level total cost of lameness per cow-year when digital dermatitis incidence level was originally 20%, 40%, or 60% was −$6.9 ± 3.3, −$13.8 ± 6.5, and −$20.6 ± 9.8, respectively. When implementing prevention strategy 2, the mean ± SD change in the herd-level total cost of lameness per cow-year when non-infectious hoof disease incidence levels were originally 5%, 15%, or 25% was −$8.7 ± 3.9, −$26.2 ± 11.6, and −$43.6 ± 19.3, respectively. For both prevention strategies, the value of prevention increased as the effectiveness of prevention increased. However, the profitability of investing in lameness prevention would depend on the cost of the selected prevention strategy and the other benefits association with the prevention strategy. If herd-level incidence of hoof diseases and the expected effectiveness of a potential lameness prevention strategy are known, this model could be used to help identify the amount that could be paid to implement that prevention strategy.

Key Words: decision support, animal health economics, prevention investment