Abstract #327

# 327
Comparison of Molly and Karoline model to predict methane emissions in cattle.
M. Kass1,3, M. D. Hanigan2, M. Ramin3, P. Huhtanen*3, 1Estonian University of Life Science, Tartu, Estonia, 2Virginia Tech University, Blacksburg, VA, 3Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Umeå, Sweden.

Models originally compiled to predict nutrient absorption from the digestive tract and metabolized in various tissues could be adapted for CH4 predictions. Numerous empirical equations and mechanistic models to predict CH4 emission are available. The Molly cow model is a mechanistic, dynamic model describing digestion and metabolism of dairy cattle with the ability to predict the animal-related factors that affect the environment, including CH4 emission (Hanigan et al., 2013). The Nordic cow model Karoline is a dynamic, mechanistic model describing digestion and metabolism in dairy cows (Danfær et al., 2006), and it was confirmed by Ramin and Huhtanen (2015) to be a useful tool in predicting CH4 emissions in cattle. The aim was to evaluate these models for predicting CH4 emissions in cattle using a data set consisting of 267 treatment means from 55 respiration chambers studies. The data set contained DMI, (14.2 ± 5.82 kg/d); ingredient proportions; dietary contents of CP (156 ± 30.8 g/kg) and NDF (356 ± 105.9 g/kg); BW (531 ± 131.1 kg); and CH4 (303 ± 118.7 g/d) which covers the range of typical cattle diets. The simulations were conducted using observed DMI, BW and dietary nutrient concentrations and digestion rates. Each treatment mean was simulated and predictions of nutrient digestibility and CH4 output were collected in a database. The relationships between observed and predicted CH4 (pCH4) were assessed by regression analysis. Root mean square error (RMSpE) was calculated as: RMSpE = √ [∑ (Obs – Pred)2/n]. Molly predictions were: CH4 (g/d) = 0.81 ± 0.018 × pCH4 (g/d) + 38 ± 6.4 (RMSpE = 54.9 (18.1% of observed mean) CCC = 0.910). The corresponding equation for Karoline was: CH4 (g/d) = 1.00 ± 0.019 × pCH4 (g/d) + 5 ± 6.0 (RMSpE = 34.6 (11.4%) CCC = 0.955). Both mean (−27 g/d) and linear bias (−0.19) were significant (P < 0.001) with Molly, but only mean bias (4 g/d) was significant (P = 0.04) with Karoline. Proportions of MSE attributable to mean and linear bias and random error were 23, 24 and 53% for Molly, and 2, 0 and 98% for Karoline, respectively. Based on predictions it can be concluded that both models predicted CH4 emissions reasonably well in terms of high CCC, but Karoline was more accurate based on smaller RMSE, mean and slope bias.

Key Words: dynamic model, methane emission, prediction equation