Abstract #515

# 515
Enteric methane emissions: Prediction and mitigation, the GLOBAL NETWORK project.
A. N. Hristov*1, E. Kebreab2, M. Niu2, J. Oh1, C. Arndt3, A. Bannink4, A. R. Bayat5, A. F. Brito6, D. Casper7, L. A. Crompton8, J. Dijkstra4, P. C. Garnsworthy9, N. Haque10, A. L. F. Hellwing11, et al.15, 1Department of Animal Science, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, 2Department of Animal Science, University of California, Davis, CA, 3Environmental Defense Fund, New York, NY, 4Wageningen University & Research, Wageningen, the Netherlands, 5Milk Production Solutions, Green Technology, Natural Resources Institute Finland, Finland, 6Department of Biological Sciences, University of New Hampshire, Durham, NH, 7Furst McNess Company, Freeport, IL, 8School of Agriculture, Policy and Development, University of Reading, Reading, UK, 9School of Biosciences, University of Nottingham, Nottingham, UK, 10Department of Large Animal Sciences, University of Copenhagen, Denmark, 11Department of Animal Science, Aarhus University, Tjele, Denmark, 12Department of Agricultural Science for Northern Sweden, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Sweden, 13ETH Zurich, Institute of Agricultural Science, Switzerland, 14Institute of Nutritional Physiology, Leibniz Institute for Farm Animal Biology, Germany, 15See PDF program for complete list of authors (http://m.adsa.org/2017/) on page 143,.

Ruminant production systems are important contributors to anthropogenic methane emissions. Globally, there is a large body of enteric methane emission data. The GLOBAL NETWORK (GN) project was established to collate and analyze methane emission and mitigation data for ruminants. Two separate databases have been developed: mitigation database and prediction database. The objective of the mitigation database is to summarize and recommend science-based enteric methane mitigation options to stakeholders. This database consists of 1,800 experimental treatment means from 410 publications. The goal of the prediction database, which consists of individual animal data, is to develop robust enteric methane emission prediction models for various ruminant species (dairy and beef cattle, sheep) and nutritional, animal, and farm management scenarios. The dairy cattle prediction database currently contains 5,899 individual animal observations from 159 studies from North and South America, Europe, and Oceania. Development of enteric methane prediction models was conducted using a sequential approach, by incrementally adding available information to develop models with increasing complexity. In total, 11 models were developed. Methane emission (g/d, per DMI, or per milk/energy-corrected milk yields) was predicted by fitting linear mixed models including random effect of study nested within the random effect of continent. As expected, a global methane emission (g/d) model with a greater number of independent variables fitted the data best [Root mean square prediction error as a percentage of mean observed value (RMSPE) = 13.4%]. Inputs were DMI, dietary concentrations of ether extract (EE) and NDF, milk fat and protein content, and cow BW. The predictive ability of fitted models was evaluated through cross-validation. Less complex models requiring only DMI, or DMI plus NDF or EE concentrations had predictive ability similar to more complex models (RMSPE = 14.0 to 14.3%). These prediction models, along with recommendations from the mitigation database analysis, provide robust enteric methane inventory and mitigation options for ruminant farming systems.

Key Words: livestock, methane, prediction

Speaker Bio
Dr. Alex Hristov is a Professor of Dairy Nutrition in the Department of Animal Science at The Pennsylvania State University. Hristov is a member of several professional organizations and the Feed Composition Committee of the National Animal Nutrition Program. He has a Ph.D. in Animal Nutrition from the Bulgarian Academy of Agricultural Sciences and has worked as a research scientist in his native Bulgaria, USDA-ARS Dairy Forage Research Center in Madison, WI, and the Ag Canada Research Center in Lethbridge, AB. He was on the faculty at the Department of Animal and Veterinary Science, University of Idaho and is at Penn State since 2008. Hristov is Chair of the Network on Feed and Nutrition in Relation to Greenhouse gas Emissions, which is an activity of the Livestock Research Group within the Global Research Alliance on Agricultural Greenhouse Gases.
Ermias Kebreab is a Professor of Animal Science, Deputy Director of Agricultural Sustainability Institute and holds the Sesnon Endowed Chair in Sustainable Animal Agriculture at the Department of Animal Science, University of California, Davis. He received a B.S. degree from University of Asmara, Eritrea and his MS and PhD degrees from the University of Reading, UK. He worked as post-doctoral fellow, adjunct, and associate professor at universities in England and Canada before joining UC Davis in 2009. Dr. Kebreab conducts research on reducing the impact of animal agriculture on the environment, particularly greenhouse gas emissions. He served on various international and national professional committees including National Research Council to update nutrient requirements of dairy cattle. He has received several awards for his work including Nutrition Excellence Award from American Society of Animal Science. He has authored over 200 peer-reviewed articles, 34 book chapters, and edited 5 books.